I reckon Hamilton certainly has one of the best chances to win the lot. His start has been fantastic. He'll do well on the Euro circuits, like you say, because he's raced on them for years.
I think Alonso still has his chance just because he has that McLaren underneath him.
Raikonnen could still pull his finger out and go into iceman mode like he did at McLaren occasionally. Can't rule Massa out either.